Water AlliesTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.3%
avg ELO -6.8 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1385
· median 1385
· range 1257–1513
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1102
Q1 1257
Q3 1430
1584
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Chess | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.4% | -11.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.3% | -26.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
